Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4938 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4938 · STL → FLL

departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 1:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

FLL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4938 · STL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?