Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4939 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4939 · STL → LGA

departs 5:40 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4939 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?