Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4945 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4945 · MCO → CMH

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

CMH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4945 · MCO → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?