Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 496 · BHM → DAL
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 54%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BHM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.