Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 496 · MDW → BHM
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BHM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.