Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4982
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4982 · SJC → SEA
departs 2:10 PM PT · arrives 4:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 34%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
2pm departures from SJC are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.