Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 498 · MSY → MDW
departs 5:40 AM CT · arrives 8:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MSY are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.