Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 526 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 526 · BNA → GSP

departs 4:05 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 633 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling633 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.18 in

GSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 526 · BNA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?