Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 540
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 540 · BNA → JAN
departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
JAN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.