Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 576 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 576 · LGA → MCI

departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 8:30 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,633 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 576 · LGA → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?