Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 586 · DAL → RNO
departs 8:55 PM CT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at RNO that day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.