Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 586 · LAS → LIT
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 6:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+28 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +28 pts in 24h
+28 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at LIT that day
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
LIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.