Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 636 · SEA → SMF
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.