Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 685 · BNA → TPA
departs 3:20 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.