Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 758 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 758 · BUF → BWI

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BUF that day

↑ Other factors

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.70 in

BWI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 758 · BUF → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?