Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 769 · BUF → TPA
departs 6:25 AM ET · arrives 9:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 5%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.