Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 770 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 770 · BNA → STL

departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 7:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,467 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.34 in

STL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 770 · BNA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?