Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 771 · BUR → AUS
departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
↓
11am departures from BUR are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.