Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 793 · STL → BWI
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.