Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 843 · BUR → RNO
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BUR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.