Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 851 · BUR → SMF
departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 3:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.