Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 856 LANDED 11:37 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 856 · MCO → SRQ

took off 11:14 PM ET · landed 11:37 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 856 · MCO → SRQ

Odds over time