Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 858 · BWI → ALB
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
ALB usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ALB (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.