Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 865 · BWI → AUS
departs 8:05 AM ET · arrives 10:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.