Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3402 · IAD → IND
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.