Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3404 · BTV → EWR
departs 3:57 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 32%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
BTV is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.47 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.