Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3406 · ABQ → ORD
departs 7:40 AM MT · arrives 11:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from ABQ are usually not late
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.