Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

YX 3413 · BOS → IAD

departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3413 · BOS → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?