Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3419 · EWR → GRR
departs 1:52 PM ET · arrives 4:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Arrivals into GRR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.