Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3420 · BUF → EWR
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from BUF are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.