Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3422 · ORD → CLE
departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 11:41 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 7%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLE that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.