Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3436 · EWR → MCI
departs 2:47 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 4.42857 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.