Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3459 LANDED 11:27 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

YX 3459 · IAD → PWM

took off 10:19 PM ET · landed 11:27 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.27 in

PWM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3459 · IAD → PWM

Odds over time