Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3472 · EWR → CVG
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 37%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.