Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3483
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3483 · DTW → ORD
departs 5:30 AM ET · arrives 5:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.64286 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from DTW are usually not late
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.79 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8.4 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.