Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3485 · CVG → ORD
departs 11:17 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
11am departures from CVG are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.35 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.