Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3488
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3488 · IAD → CLE
departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.