Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3494 · ROC → ORD
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 1:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.