Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3495 · IAD → DTW
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 1.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.