Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3505 · IAD → BTV
departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 10:19 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BTV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BTV?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into BTV at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BTV (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.