Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3507
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3507 · ROC → ORD
departs 10:42 AM ET · arrives 11:53 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 6%
Mon 10/5 4%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.