Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3524 · CMH → ORD
departs 5:30 AM ET · arrives 6:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 2%
Sun 10/4 3%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 857 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from CMH are usually not late
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.8 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.