Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3526
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3526 · IAD → SDF
departs 8:31 AM ET · arrives 10:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.