Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3564 · EWR → MKE
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.