Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3580
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3580 · ROC → EWR
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 23%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
37%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
37%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
ROC is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.