Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3588
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3588 · EWR → TVC
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 1:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
TVC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.