Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3591 · BTV → EWR
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.47 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.