Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3593 · PHL → IAD
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.