Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3598
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 3598 · ORD → SDF
departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 8:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 22%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
32%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.