Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3607
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 3607 · IAD → CMH
departs 10:15 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.27 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.